The 4th of December is the day of parlament elections in Russia. In some ways it’s huge because probably for the third time during the 20 years of democracy in Russia people have realized that they can actually change something. And it’s not the point that United Russia party backed by Medvedev and Putin wins again. The point is that many people who’d never go to elections will actually go there on Sunday and vote for any other party but United Russia just to send a signal about their discontent.
 
Many polls conducted by official sociological research organizations show that United Russia is leading with about 50% of votes at the moment (1). However, if you ask any of your Russian friends or look on the internet the picture is very different (2). The size of the sample is also much larger: 10 000 people vs. 1500 that sociological research organizations normally use. Most of the people are going to vote for KPRF (communist party) and Yabloko (the Russian version of a liberal, mid-wing, kind of green party favored by younger and educated people) – they both more or less equally share 30% of votes. And yes, the internet is different, but it’s one half of the population nevertheless, so even if the sampling is biased and the rest votes 100% for United Russia, we’d still be left for 15% for KPRF and Yabloko each.

If the official results are different, it’s going to be a signal from the government that they don’t count with the public opinion and even though no one will go on the streets, it might as well be the last drop for many people who are not satisfied with the current political system in Russia.
 
For many people the last 20 years have been a period of recovering from the last decade of the Soviet Union when the country was crumbling. Unabridged consumerism was just a symptom of that prolonged sickness. However, now that everyone had the time to enjoy the vices of neo-liberalist ideology and 50% have more or less OK income, they start thinking about the country and the society they live in. And what they see are the huge levels of corruption, semi-criminal bureaucrats who have myriads of business interests and yet work in politics, crumbling hospitals, impoverished villages, their older parents who get $150 per month in the city where life is more expensive than in London. Something definitely needs to be changed and the current government has shown already that it’s unable to do it on its own. They need new influences and ideas, new people, new ways of seeing things. This election will be about exchanging signals between the government and the population. The results will show whether they are willing to negotiate.

If United Russia gets the majority in parlament again, it’s going to affect the 50 million people who think otherwise. And it might well be the last straw. Schelling (3) in his work on conflict resolution has been talking about burning bridges as the last measure that may strengthen one’s position, because you then have nothing to lose. So this election is a win-win situation for those who don’t agree: either we get what we want or we burn our bridges. And it may as well push even the most apathetic people for action finally.
 

1. Center for the Study of Public Policy, University of Aberden. Levada Center Moscow. Political party preferences.
2. Internet election polling by tema.livejournal.com – one of the most popular and also apolitical bloggers in Russia
3. Schelling, T. C. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict. Harvard University Press.